academy award predictions, saidi style

Now that all the other awards have been handed out and the voting has ended for this weekend’s Academy Awards, the only thing left to do is to join the hundreds of others that are predicting who will win an Academy Award this weekend. 

Note that this isn’t what or who I would pick to win, it’s what or who I think will win based on previous wins and the movies or people that everyone is talking about right now.  If it were up to me, I’d have to see a lot more movies before I could say who I would vote for.  Of the 10 best picture nominees, so far I’ve seen 3 all the way through (“Tár”, “The Fabelmans”, and “Top Gun: Maverick”), I’ve seen parts of 2 other movies (“Everything, Everywhere All at Once”, and “Elvis”) and almost nothing (except the trailer) of the other 4.  Same thing with nominees in other categories.  I’ve seen “Babylon” “Causeway”, “Glass Onion”, “Empire of Light”, “The Batman”, and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”, and I’ve seen parts of “Blonde”, “Turning Red”.  I haven’t seen any of the other movies or documentaries.

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once

The movie has won almost all the previous awards including Critics Choice, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild (their best picture is basically the “ensemble acting” award).  So, I’d say there’s a very good chance it will win yet another one.

Possible Surprise: “The Fabelmans” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” have won a couple best picture awards, but not as many.

Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

In my opinion, a movie wins best picture primarily due to its director.  Since the two directors of this movie have also won almost all the previous awards, I think they also have a very good chance of winning this one. 

Possible Surprise: There’s a slight chance they’ll give it to Steven Spielberg for making the movie loosely based on his life.

Best Actor: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Austin Butler for “Elvis” has won a few awards including the BAFTA and the Golden Globes (Drama).  Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin” has won a few awards including the Golden Globes (comedy) and the National Board of Review.   Brendan Frasier has also won a few awards including Critics Choice and – most importantly – Screen Actors Guild.  Since the Screen Actors Guild was the most recent and actors are the biggest group of Academy voters, I think he will get it.

Possible Surprise: Austin Butler or Colin Farrell could still take it.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett – Tár

In terms of previous wins, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” are pretty much neck and neck.  One got the best actress Golden Globe for drama and the other got it for comedy.  However, if you ask me the best thing about “Tár” was Cate Blanchetts performance so if the movie wins any award, it should be her.  Also, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is probably going to win so many other awards they might give one to someone else.

Possible Surprise: It won’t really be a surprise if Michelle Yeoh wins.

Best Supporting Actor: Key Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is pretty much a sure thing.  He has already won over 70 other awards for this role.  It will be a huge upset if he doesn’t win.

Possible Surprise: As I mentioned above, there’s little doubt that he will win.  However, if he doesn’t win, I think it would be great to see Judd Hirsch win for his very small part in “The Fabelmans”.  He was really good and has managed to win one or two awards for the role.

Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett – Black Panther Wakanda Forever

She has won some awards including the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, and Jamie Lee Curtis for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has won a few awards including the Screen Actors Guild.  However, I think they’ll give it to Angela Bassett.  It’ll be the very first acting Academy Award for a Marvel movie.

Possible Surprise: If “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has a major sweep of awards, then Jamie Lee Curtis could be part of the sweep.

Best Original ScreenplayDaniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Although I only watched a little of the movie, I know that the best thing about the movie is the script.  So, I’m fairly sure this will be the winner, especially since it won the Writers Guild award last weekend.

Possible Surprise: Martin McDonagh has won several best original screenplay awards including the BAFTA and the Golden Globes.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sarah Polley – Women Talking

This movie has already won some awards for adapted screenplay and “All Quiet on the Western Front” has also won some awards for adapted screenplay.  I think “Women Talking” will win it since a previous theatrical version of the “All Quiet on the Western Front” won the Academy Award for best picture.  Although it was a looong time ago (in 1930 – 93 years ago) it’s basically the same story.  Both movies are based on the same book.

Possible Surprise: There’s still a chance that “All Quiet on the Western Front” will take it.

Best Animated Feature – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

This movie has won best animated feature for almost ALL the other awards show.  This is even more of a sure thing than Key Huy Quan is.  One article I read said there’s a 90% chance this will win compared to a 79% chance for Key Huy Quan winning.

Possible Surprise: As I said above, the 2nd most popular choice – “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” – has less than 10% chance of winning.  So, I doubt there will be a surprise.

I’m not going to go through all the other awards but here are a few more guesses….

I’m guessing “Avatar: The Way of Water” will take best visual effects since it’s almost 100% visual effects.

I think “All Quiet on the Western Front” is the favorite to win best international feature since it has so many other Academy Award nominations – including best picture.

I think “Elvis” might win best cinematography which means Mandy Walker – the first female to win the Cinematographers award last weekend – will be the first woman to win the Academy Award for cinematography. The “Critics Choice” best cinematography winner was “Top Gun: Maverick” which wasn’t nominated for an Academy Award.  However, “All Quiet on the Western Front” IS nominated and has also already won some best cinematography awards including the BAFTA award.  That movie wasn’t nominated for the Cinematographers award.

Best editing is a close race between “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once”.  They both won the Editors guild awards – one for drama and the other for comedy.  I think if “Top Gun: Maverick” wins any Academy Award it will be for picture and/or sound editing.

I think that best song will be a close race between Rihanna’s song from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and the song from “RRR”.  The song from “RRR” may have a slim lead because it’s already won a few awards including Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes.

One last thing is my prediction of the show.  My prediction is that – despite all the “prepared for anything” talk due to the slap from last year – it will be very boring.  None of the blockbuster movies will win any major awards.  Other than possibly watching a pregnant Rihanna performing live, I doubt there will be anything worth tuning in for.  You can find out who won on Twitter almost immediately after the win.  I probably won’t be watching.